After a strong Week 5, I fell flat on my face in Week 6 with my worst week of the season. I’m still two games ahead of Reggie after last night, so I’ve got that going for me.
Locks of the Week:
BALTIMORE +3.5 over Green Bay
The public perception of the Packers is great to bet against. They were gifted an easy win last week when Calvin Johnson sat out, but what exactly have they done to earn more than a field goal on the road against an improving defense? Clay Matthews is out for at least a month and Joe Flacco's home splits over the last two seasons show he'll be ready to take on a questionable Packers secondary this week.
HOUSTON –7.5 over St. Louis
This is exactly the kind of game that Houston needs to get their heads right. Only three teams allow more rushing yards per game than the Rams and that’s exactly what the Texans intend to focus do early and often. Now who’s showing up to Matt Schaub’s house this week?
SEATTLE –13.5 over Tennessee
As highlighted in the survivor pick from yesterday, Seattle’s defense performs much better at home. Look for RyanFitzpatrick to commit a few turnovers, get sacked a few times, and Seattle to cruise easily in this one.
Trap Game of the Week:
Carolina +2.5 over MINNESOTA
News this morning of Adrian Peterson dealing with a sad family situation clouds what may happen on Sunday. Obviously things like this are more important than football, but for this column’s sake, one has to wonder if he misses the game. It seems like one of those situations where he plays, he’s motivated, runs for 300 yards, and ESPN does a feature on it next week. All the signs point to Carolina pulling this off since they’re a top 10 defense against the run and Minnesota is third-to-last in passing yards allowed per game while being average in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. You just never know with motivational factors like what Peterson’s dealing with.
Rest of the Picks:
Detroit –2.5 over CLEVELAND
This game comes down to whether or not Calvin Johnson plays. Cleveland's little three-game run is nice and all, but Detroit's offense is better than anything they've seen this year. The Lions pass rush will cause Brandon Weeden to turn the ball over at least twice this week.
TAMPA BAY +1.5 over Philadelphia
Mike Glennon has two things going for him compared to his first start of the season. He had two weeks to prepare and the Eagles allow 326 passing yards a game, third-worst in the league. The Buccaneers defense has shown improvement this season, allowing only 19 points a game and being in the top half of most major defense categories.
Cincinnati –7.5 over BUFFALO
If you want to back Thad Lewis, that’s up to you. I just can’t do it–even with the Bills playing a road game. The Bengals defense is good enough to completely brutalize the Duke grad.
N.Y. JETS –1.5 over Pittsburgh
The Jets still aren’t getting any respect. The Steelers are coming off an extra week of rest, but that doesn’t make them any good. Their defense last in the league in sacks and can’t stop the run–two staples of their usually ferocious defense.
OAKLAND +9.5 over Kansas City
It’ll be interesting to see how Terrell Pryor handles the best defense he’s faced all season. Other than the Broncos game, he’s been good enough to keep the Raiders respectable all season. Since the Chiefs aren’t an explosive offense, covering 10 points is a lot to ask. It’s OK, Chiefs fans. I still think you’ll win this week. We can head down to Miami and celebrate with one of your favorite players / DJs next week.
Reggie: Kansas City
DENVER –27.5 over Jacksonville
We all know the Jaguars are terrible. How big would the line have to be for me to pick them? I’d say it would have to be at least 30 points. Couldn’t you see Denver getting out to a 35-0 halftime lead and then coasting in the second half for a 45-14 victory? Well, that still convers the spread. That’s also assuming they only score 10 points in the second half. And I know everyone’s going to be on Denver, but I don’t care. I’m done with thinking the Jags can cover any spreads.
Reggie: Jacksonville AND THE FOUR TOUCHDOWNS
NEW ENGLAND –2.5 over New Orleans
The story surrounding Rob Gronkowski’s forearm injury is quite interesting. This is why James Andrews handles a majority of sports surgeries. The Patriots’ doctors obviously couldn’t do a good enough job that the Patriots are now relying on Andrews to clear Gronk to play. I obviously feel better about the pick if he plays, but you have to give the Patriots credit for playing much better defense this year. Their whole at defensive tackle isn’t that bad considering the Saints don’t run the ball at all.
Reggie: New Orleans
Arizona +11.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I honestly can’t believe I’m picking a Carson Palmer side after the way I’ve seen him throw the ball over the last three-four weeks. He looks terrible. He might be inclined to have a Matt Schaub-like performance against San Francisco, but the Cardinals defense should keep them in the game. The 49ers offense still doesn’t look right and Arizona has a knack for creating turnovers.
Washington +5.5 over DALLAS
This should be another high-scoring affair between two teams with defenses that can’t shut anyone down. The Redskins should be rested and prepared coming off the bye while Dallas is heartbroken after last week’s loss. Dallas’ defense hasn’t shown the ability to hold any team down, so give me the points.
Indianapolis –1.5 over SAN DIEGO
This may be a public trap game of sorts with Indianapolis pulling off a huge win against Seattle and San Diego crapping out last week. Facts are facts, however, and it’s worth noting that the Chargers wouldn’t be 2-3 if they were that good. Their offensive line is bare bones operation and Indianapolis is near the league lead in sacks. We all know Phil Rivers never fares well when running for his life.
Reggie: San Diego
This Week: 0-1
This Week: 6-10
Reggie’s Picks: 38-39-1