With the way my picks have been going this season, I’m ready to do the opposite. I still believe I know what I’m talking about, although my record may say otherwise, but a lot of sports people out there aren’t having success picking against the spread this year. Maybe it’s a weird year, maybe we’re all terrible. I’m one week away from going opposite like George. We’ll see what happens.
Locks of the Week:
GREEN BAY -4 over Minnesota
Scott Tolzien never wowed people at Wisconsin in a run-first offense, but he actually looked competent last week. Sure he threw some interceptions, but that comes with the territory of a rookie starting his first road game. He can move the ball much better than Seneca Wallace. The Vikings offense not only has quarterback issues, but Adrian Peterson’s groin (not something I normally like to talk about) is damaged and the receivers are beat-up.
Reggie: Green Bay
San Francisco -6 over WASHINGTON
The 49ers aren’t a great team, but they do a really good job of beating bad teams. During their five-game winning streak against St. Louis, Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, they won by an average of 22.6 points. They do much better when they can run the ball and Washington is a sieve against the run.
Tampa Bay +10 over DETROIT
Don’t look now, but Mike Glennon has eight touchdowns and only one interception in his last five games. The Buccaneers have actually looked like a real team in the last two weeks. Detroit’s not good enough to shut down Tampa Bay’s offense, so look for the Buccaneers to not get blown out in this one.
Trap Game of the Week:
N.Y. Jets +4 over BALTIMORE
It’s a good Geno Smith week based on the first 10 games, but he’s is also terrible on the road. I’m torn! If Baltimore was any better, this would be easy.
Rest of the Picks:
ST. LOUIS PK over Chicago
The Rams are on the up and up with Kellen Clemmons and Zac Stacy leading the offense. Bet you’d never think you’d hear that sentence. Stacy has been bruising the shit out of people like William Stanbeck. (Who’s William Stanbeck? This is William Stanbeck. But the defensive line is where it’s at. Those guys have been killing it recently. Defensive end Chris Long gets to go up against his brother Kyle, an offensive guard, this week in certain formations so that should be kind of cool.
Reggie: St. Louis
San Diego +5 over KANSAS CITY
If there’s anything San Diego does well, it’s lose close games.
Reggie: Kansas City
Pittsburgh +1 over CLEVELAND
The Browns have lost four of five games, so they’re not exactly heading in the right direction. The Steelers have looked strong defensively in back-to-back games after getting obliterated by New England and somehow have a chance to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.
Jacksonville +11.5 over HOUSTON
Houston fell flat on their face as a big favorite last week. They’ve clearly shown they can’t get out of their own way. And yes I hate myself for taking Jacksonville in back-to-back weeks.
MIAMI +4.5 over Carolina
Carolina has been cruising, but this game has letdown written all over it after the big victory against New England and a short week to practice. Miami has also shown they can win home games against decent teams having beaten Cincinnati and San Diego in their last two in “Whatever they’re calling it this year” Stadium. We’ll see who’s saying “Ice Up, Son” come Sunday.
OAKLAND PK over Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t won a game this year when starting for Tennessee at quarterback. Matt McGloin is 1-0. That’s easy math for me. Rashad Jennings is killing it right now. Who needs Darren McFadden? Jennings is more likely to do something like this than McFadden.
Indianapolis +2.5 over ARIZONA
The Colts do really poorly as large favorites, but they win the close games. Give me Andrew Luck over Carson Palmer any day.
Dallas +2.5 over N.Y. GIANTS
The Cowboys have had two weeks to regroup from getting bitch-slapped by the Saints. The Giants may have won four games in a row, but they haven’t played well in any of them. I’ll continue to say that until they prove otherwise. Maybe the intensity of the rivalry will heat up so much this weekend that it comes to this.
NEW ENGLAND +2.5 over Denver
Twenty-nine degrees is the high for Foxboro on Sunday. I need to see Peyton Manning can execute this offense in the cold weather before I think Denver can win a Super Bowl in New York. The Patriots will get over last week’s loss real quick.
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-9
Reggie’s Picks: 80-82-2