It’s just sitting there, blank and full of possibilities, open to any permutation your little heart desires. Everyone and their brother fills one out, but your bracket is special. It represents your gut feelings, your carefully crafted March Madness theories. When it’s done, you sit back and admire it, sure that this is the year you nail virtually every pick.
But something inevitably goes wrong.
That Cinderella never dances. That sure-fire Final Four team goes ice cold. Nobody guards the fucking inbounder in a late-game situation.
Yes, it all goes to pot and someone’s girlfriend, who made her selections based on which mascot was the most ferocious, wins the your pool.
Luckily, I’m here with ten tips that can keep this Doomsday scenario from happening yet again.
1. Don’t be a hero
Everyone wants to be the genius who picks all the upsets. Sure, picking the Goliath one will make you look brilliant if it happens. It will also decimate your bracket quicker than Shane Larkin’s first step if it doesn’t. Go ahead and pencil all No. 1 and 2 seeds into the second round. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the top two teams in each region are a combined 210-6. Additionally, No. 1 seeds win 88 percent of their second-round games.
2. Keep the 12-over-5 trend alive
In every tournament since 1989 – except for 2001 and 2007 – a No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed. Overall, they’ve won 37 percent of the time, a much higher frequency than No. 11 seeds over No. 6 seeds. This year’s most likely candidate? Oregon, who was grossly underseeded thanks to geographical concerns. Second-most likely? California over UNLV. Allen Crabbe is a beast.
3. Don’t go streaking
It only makes sense that you’d want to hitch your wagon to a team that is just finding its stride, right? Well, not so much. Conference tournament winners account for just 17 of the 44 Final Four teams in the past 11 years. On the other hand, 20 of the last 27 national champions have won their regular-season conference title. That’s good news for Indiana, and Florida, who won their respective regular-season crowns before being bounced from the conference tournaments.
4. Believe in the ACC
At least one ACC team has reached the Final Four in 22 of the last 28 tournaments. Miami has looked like the most talented teams at times this year, but no on the roster has played in the Big Dance. Duke has obvious flaws, but if they can go on a run of hot shooting, they could be dancing in Atlanta. Or they could lose to a 15-seed again. Who the hell knows?
