Peyton Manning will throw for 60 touchdowns this season. The Eagles are going to run 100 plays a game by Week 9 and score 45 points a game by that point. The 49ers will go 15-1 with Anquan Boldin putting up 2,000 receiving yards. The Jaguars won’t score more than 100 points this year. Baltimore’s going to give up 600 points by the time the season’s over. David Wilson will fumble the ball 20 times and get cut by December. The Jets will go 19-0 and win the Super Bowl.
Ok, none of that is going to happen, but you’d think it was a foregone conclusion given all the overreaction after Week 1. While some things we witnessed last week may be an indication of what we’re going to see going forward, there’s plenty of time for things to change or regress to the mean. It’s a long season. We’ve got 16 more regular season weeks of this fun.
There is one interesting thing that did come from the season’s first week which indicates something that won’t change too much going forward. According to Elias, last week marked the most passing touchdowns of any week in NFL history. Those 63 touchdowns weren’t a fluke. Teams are airing it out these days. Defense may win championships, but offense sells tickets. This bodes pretty well for the excitement value the rest of the season. As I said, we’ve got 16 more weeks of this fun.
Survivor Pick of the Week:
NEW ENGLAND over N.Y. Jets
Last week was a close one. The Patriots and Colts decided to make us sweat it out with last-second defeats. Those who took the Steelers and the Buccaneers weren’t so fortunate, but that’s why you shoot for the best chances to win at home every week and take as few chances as possible.
Given all that, the Patriots are the easy selection this week as double-digit favorites. The Patriots didn’t look their best against Buffalo and the loss of Stevan Ridley and Danny Amendola won’t help matters. The Patriots, however, have won before with less and they’ll band together this week. You can’t expect Geno Smith to win his first road game having a short week to prepare. The Jets didn’t exactly light things up last week. Their new “shut-down” corner gave up 154 yards to the other team’s best receiver. Their starting running backs combined for two yards a carry. They won the game because Tampa Bay’s middle linebacker was dumb enough to push Geno Smith when he was out of bounds. I’m not impressed. You shouldn’t be, either.
Your other options this week include Atlanta (home, but likely missing Roddy White against an average Rams team, Baltimore (looking to rebound with extra rest while taking on a Cleveland group that couldn’t keep their quarterback from throwing interceptions last week), Houston (should get their act together quicker than last week) or Green Bay (the offense is definitely there and RG3 just isn’t up to speed yet). I’d look to avoid Oakland (because you’re not going to really risk your ass on Oakland, are you?) and Cincinnati (I like to avoid hardcore division rivalries going against a two-time Super Bowl-winning QB).
Thursday Night Pick:
NEW ENGLAND -12 over N.Y. Jets
After what I wrote above, you didn’t expect me to take the Jets, did you? I’d like to see you put money behind Geno Smith in his first road game.
Reggie’s pick: New England
Last Week: 7-8-1