Power Forward, San Antonio

It’s hard to say age is affecting his game as he continues to put up solid fantasy numbers. In only 31 minutes a game last season Tim still averaged a double-double with 18 ppg, 10 rpg, 3 apg to go along with 1.5 blocks per game. At some point in his career he is going to slow down and this upcoming season could be that time. He has a young bruiser playing next to him in DeJuan Blair, who in his second year should be more of a force inside, which could limit the pounding Tim has to take. It could also take away some rebounds. There is also a lot of talk about the Spurs youngster, Tiago Splitter. Tiago is going to come off the bench a lot to keep Duncan fresh. The bottom line is that Tim Duncan will continue to produce if he’s on the floor, but at some point in the very near future he is going to breakdown. You don’t want to be stuck with that type of player on your roster.

2. Chris Bosh

Power Forward, Miami

When Chris Bosh signed with Miami, his fantasy value took a bit of a hit. Last season he averaged 24 and 10 for 43 fantasy points per game. In Toronto he was the first option offensively, now he’s the third on a Miami team with two of the best scorers in the league. There’s absolutely no way he can average 24 ppg again this season, there’s just not enough scoring opportunities to go around. Bosh should still be able to average 13 to 15 ppg and 10 rebounds with Wade and LeBron’s defense causing the other team to force up bad shots. In years past, Bosh was a mid-first round pick. This year, while he may still average a double-double, he’s not worth taking prior to the end of round three or the beginning of round four. Let somebody else draft him on what he’s done in the past. It’s a total crapshoot on what you should expect out of Bosh and that risk outweighs his potential in Miami.

3. Carlos Boozer

Power Forward, Chicago

Carlos Boozer’s acquisition instantly made the Bulls a much better team, and he becomes the best fantasy player on Chicago. Derrick Rose will shine, but Boozer will likely average a double-double down low for a team that has needed a presence inside for over a decade. The problem is that he just broke his pinky on his right, shooting hand and will be sidelined until December. You are still going to have to use a fairly high draft pick to get a player that will miss one third of the season. Is it really worth it? There is also the chance that Boozer is bothered by the injury all season. Then there is the whole Joakim Noah ordeal. How can we expect Carlos to rebound like he has in the past when Noah will be playing right next to him? The bottom line is avoid Boozer for the first five rounds. If, for some reason, he makes it to you in the sixth, make the pick. 

4. Gilbert Arenas

Shooting Guard, Washington

Last season, Arenas was healthy for the first time in two years and ready to have a big comeback year. Unfortunately, he was caught with a gun in the Wizards locker room and suspended the rest of the season. In the 32 games he played in before the suspension, Arenas averaged 22.6 points, 7.2 assists, and 4.2 rebounds per game. We all know that this is what he can produce when he’s on the court, but that playing time has been sparse between the injuries and suspension. Washington decided to bring in Josh Howard last season and draft John Wall with the first overall pick in the draft. Then they signed Kirk Hinrich in the offseason. All of these moves to the backcourt are troubling news for Arenas. He has a ton of baggage following him in fantasy drafts and now he has competition for stats. It might be a good idea to just leave Agent Zero alone. Sure, there is a ton of upside, but he’s going to be a headache for his owners all season.

5. Joe Johnson

Shooting Guard, Atlanta

Joe Johnson got the max contract he was seeking in the offseason, but that doesn’t mean he’s worthy of a top pick in your draft. Johnson had a good season last year, averaging 33 fantasy points, but he does little to fill the stat sheet. He’s one of the most explosive scorers in the league, but that’s about all he does. Johnson doesn’t rebound and doesn’t dish out that many assists. Players like JJ have a tendency to cause owners headaches from time to time. If he has a rough scoring night, he does little else to fill the stat sheet, which makes him very inconsistent. While Johnson’s the highest paid player on his team, he’s the third best fantasy option behind Josh Smith and Al Horford. Let someone else make the mistake of taking him in the 4th round based on name recognition. We are very wary of a player coming off a contract year. Now that he’s got the big payday, will he be as motivated to produce?

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