Longest Completion by Russell Wilson – Over 38.5 yards (-115)
Denver’s got a leaky defense and Seattle likes to take their shots deep, especially off play action. Wilson’s got the cannon to get the ball through the wind in Met Life Stadium, so I feel like there’s definitely a good shot on this one.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards – Over 42.5 (-115)
Along the same lines, Baldwin will be the Seattle receiver likely making the deep routes. Percy Harvin will get a lot of attention and Golden Tate will be getting primary coverage. There’s plenty of opportunity for Baldwin.
Team with the Most Penalty Yards – Seahawks (-140)
Seattle is the more physical team, specifically in the secondary. Their defensive backs like to push people around it’s possible the NFL will want to keep an eye on that after all the conversation it’s received this week.
Knowshon Moreno Total Receptions Over 2.5 (-165)
While the Seattle secondary is beating the hell out of Denver’s receivers, their pass rush will be coming for Manning. He’ll like have to dump the ball off to Moreno since he won’t have the time to look downfield as much as he wants.
Highest-scoring Half – 2nd Half & OT (-135)
Historically the average second half has had more points (24.32) than the first half (21.49). The second half has been the highest scoring half in 29 of 46 Super Bowls, otherwise known as 63% of the time. That should equate to -170, so take the favorable odds. Numbers in recent years have been more slanted to the second half, so that makes it even better. Whether it’s nerves or two teams feeling each other out, the proof is there.
Will Either Team Make a Field Goal in the Third Quarter (-115)
With the nerves out of the way, the teams should be able to regroup at halftime and figure out what’s working for their offenses. It’s basically a coin flip as to whether there will be a field goal, but it should be greater.
Total Number of Seahawks to Catch a Pass – Under 7.5 (-175)
Realistically how many guys are going to catch balls for Seattle? With Harvin back, you’ll see less of Seattle’s potpourri of receivers. Harvin, Marshawn Lynch, Baldwin, and Tate seem like locks with Zach Miller or Luke Wilson catching passes at tight end and Jermaine Kearse helping out. That’s 7 and that’s pushing it. And if you need some more numbers, Seattle only completed passes to eight or more receivers in five games this year.
Russell Wilson Longest Rush from Scrimmage – Over 12.5 (-120)
Alex Smith is a somewhat mobile quarterback who played against Denver twice this year. He had success running the ball in those games, rushing for at least 46 yards in each game. His longest run was 25 yards in one game and 26 yards in the other. Rusty should have a few opportunities to run wild and do the same.
More Completions – Russell Wilson +10.5 over Peyton Manning (-115)
This is a nice pick if you think Seattle will win or keep things close. Denver’s pass defense is worse than their rush defense and Seattle’s defense should limit Manning to a certain extent.
Julius Thomas Total Receiving Yards – Under 53.5 (-115)
Remember how Jimmy Graham completely disappeared in two games against Seattle this year? Covering the tight end is a specialty for Seattle because of their athletic linebackers and safeties. Success for Orange Julius on Thomas seems a little far fetched.
Seattle +2.5 over Denver
The line was once as high as +3 for Seattle at early points, but has settled down to +2.5 at most books by now. Maybe you can shop around and find +3 or maybe you want to take less risk with less reward and buy the line up to +3. It’s a nice safety net to have, but know full well that you shouldn’t be picking Seattle with the points if you don’t think they can outright win the game. And they will win the game.
Everything came up roses for Denver in their last game. New England features one of the worst defenses in football. Their secondary couldn’t stay with the talented Denver receivers, which was a problem because their pass rush couldn’t get anywhere near Peyton Manning. Their passing offense was never the same after losing Rob Gronkowski, meaning they couldn’t take advantage of Denver’s injured secondary. The altitude effect on conditioning meant New England’s mediocre defensive players were replaced by even more mediocre defensive players more often. Finally the temperature in Denver was an unseasonable 65 degrees at kickoff. The situation couldn’t have been more perfect for Manning.
Meanwhile Seattle fought a war and came out on top. That’s fine since they had two weeks to rest and are motivation isn’t an issue this week. Everything that went right for Denver two weeks ago doesn’t apply in this game against Seattle. The weather is colder, the defense is better, and the Seahawks are good enough offensively to get what they need. The only thing missing for them is their great home field advantage, but you can’t have everything.
That’s why it’s so annoying when Joe Blow talks about how great Peyton Manning is, how he cut up Denver, and he’ll overcome Seattle without any issue. That’s such a weak way of looking at the game. But hey, if it gives me better odds to take Seattle, I’m all for it.
Seattle 24 Denver 20
Last Week: 2-0
Playoffs: 7-2-1
Reggie’s Picks: 5-4-1
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