Final Four Preview: Legendary Programs and Coaches Shine

Saturday’s Final Four matchups have everything to offer. You have arguably three of the best programs in recent memory with Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State. Wisconsin isn’t that far behind. You have four of the best coaches in the game participating, including the coach with the most wins in D-1 history. You also have the two guys being debated as the #1 pick in the draft with Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns. Are you not entertained?!?

#1 Duke vs. #7 Michigan State – 6:09 p.m.

Just like last year we have a #1 seed taking on a #7 seed in the early game. Unlike last year the #7 seed did not beat the #1 team in the regular season. It’ a great story that Michigan State made it to the Final Four again considering that they’re a #7 seed, but is anyone that surprised? The East Region was weak and Tom Izzo has now reached seven Final Fours while being ranked as low as a #5 seed. The guy does great things. (Bill Self, are you taking notes?)

But let’s focus on the game at hand. Don’t look now but Duke is up to 18th in the country in defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. They were 63rd at the end of the regular season, so they’ve clearly made some adjustments for the better. They were always good at protecting the three-point line, but now they’ve improved their defense on drives and around the rim. It’s possibly the numbers are slightly inflated by their last two games being played in a dome, but the previous four are part of this as well. Defense was always the issue for Duke and if they’ve improved that then they should beat Michigan State with ease.

Michigan State is just an OK defensive team, but they turned up the dial in the second half of last game against Louisville. But Louisville is 65th in offensive efficiency according to Kenpom and Duke is 3rd. This is a whole different ball game. Michigan State’s guards are going to struggle containing Duke’s elite guards. Quinn Cook has been great shadowing the opposition’s guards this year, so look for him to lock down Travis Trice. Without Trice, Michigan State will struggle to keep up since Justise Winslow and Matt Jones should go a good job of limiting Denzel Valentine. Michigan State just won’t have enough firepower as Duke moves on to the magical final we’re all looking for. (Sorry Kyle!)

#1 Kentucky vs. #1 Wisconsin – Approx. 8:49 p.m.

The second game on Saturday is the heavyweight fight we’ve all been waiting for. Wisconsin gets its chance at revenge against a Kentucky team that barely made it to Indianapolis. Kentucky should’ve lost to Notre Dame if Notre Dame’s elite offense didn’t go into the tank in the final minutes. Instead all we saw was Jerian Grant isolation and Kentucky can live up to the “survive and advance” moniker.

The question remains: can Wisconsin replicate what Notre Dame did on offense that was successful? Given that Wisconsin is the most efficient offense to Notre Dame’s second, you think there’s a chance. Upon further review, there are many similarities. Notre Dame’s offense doesn’t turn the ball over and shoots extremely well inside the arc and at the line to go with their outside shooting. Wisconsin isn’t as good from beyond the arc (although maybe they are now if Sam Dekker is going to shoot like this), but they also don’t turn the ball over and shoot well inside the arc and at the line. They’ve got a different group getting it done, however, as their offense comes from the frontcourt as opposed to Notre Dame’s perimeter that does most of their damage.

The frontcourt scoring sadly plays into Kentucky strength. Kentucky’s at their weakest defending the perimeter with their bigger and slower guards. Chances are Kentucky’s frontcourt of size, size, and more size should be able to limit Wisconsin’s bigs even if they generally produce on the perimeter. Trey Lyles and Willy Cauley-Stein have the quickness to guard on the perimeter (did you see WCS chase down Jerian Grant on the last shot of the Elite Eight game?) and their length will likely disrupt Wisconsin’s shooting. Wisconsin’s offense is likely good enough to keep it close, but Kentucky’s defense is one you want to side with on final minute possessions.

On the flip side, Kentucky should be able to score when it matters. They’re not great offensively, but Wisconsin’s defensive weakness is inside the paint. Look for Towns to get whatever he wants against Kaminsky in the paint. Wisconsin would be best served to force someone other than Towns to beat them given Kentucky’s average three-point shooting. It’ll be interesting to see how Kentucky adjusts if that’s the case. Last year’s game was relatively high-scoring, but Kentucky wasn’t nearly as good defensively. As we saw last week against Notre Dame, defense survives and we’ll see that again with Kentucky pulling it out here.

Vegas Best Bets:

Wisconsin +5.5 over Kentucky – This will be a low-scoring game, so points will be at a premium. Wisconsin should be good enough to keep this one relatively close, so don’t be surprised to see the game come down to the final possession again.

Wisconsin and Kentucky Under 132 – Kentucky’s defense and Wisconsin’s slow pace will likely keep this under the number.

Wisconsin and Kentucky Largest Lead Under 14 – I know blowing double digit leads is a theme in this tournament, but there’s very little likelihood of this game getting out of hand at any point. The margin should be under 10 throughout.

Duke -1.5 over Michigan State / Under 142 (4-point teaser) – Duke held their last two opponents each under 60 points. Those games were in a dome, but don’t forget this one is too.