Serving Up a Heaping Helping of NFL Week 12 Picks

Over the first month of the season it was basically acknowledge that Vegas bookmakers were going heavy on the booze to drink away the pain. Joe Q. Public was winning money hand over fist with Week 7 being the worst weekend bookmakers have seen in twenty years. Then something funny happened. Slowly but surely, Vegas has fought back and taken back some of the money it flushed down the toilet in previous weeks. Over the last 30 days, underdogs are 58% against the spread (ATS), away teams are 62% ATS, and away dogs are 66% ATS. All three scenarios are ways in which Vegas keeps building those large casinos. Admittedly my picks haven't been as strong as they were early in the season, but I'm still keeping my head well above water. Being that it is the week of Thanksgiving, I'd like to give thanks to still being alive in a survivor pool, to staying near the top of my pickem pool, and to finding some winnings locks for a change last week. Hopefully this momentum can continue going forward.

Survivor Pick of the Week:
CINCINNATI over Cleveland
Another week, another few bite the dust with the Steelers' loss in Kansas City and the Bengals' loss in Oakland. Again, I'll reiterate that I only like home teams and this reaffirms my point. Maybe once my profits yield enough money for an intern, I can hire Darren to calculate what the winning percentage of double-digit home favorites are. Until then, I'll rely on everything else in front of me and choose the Bengals this week. The Bengals were due for a down week. With Benson back, I expect them to have their act together. Don't be fooled by the Browns' offensive explosion last week. They were playing the Lions. Everything falls back into place this week.
Previously used: Green Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Dallas, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Jacksonville.

Locks of the Week:

Indianapolis (-3) over HOUSTON
The Colts are 4-0-1 when they're either an underdog or favored by three points or less this year. Given all the public money that falls onto the Colts, I'm surprised Vegas doesn't generally make their lines higher. Besides, can you honestly back the Texans after watching that terrible coaching performance from Gary Kubiak last week? He once again showed his man-crush for Chris Brown by giving him a majority of the carries. That 3.3 yards per carry on 11 carries was really productive... Still, the Texans were only down three and had the ball on the Titans' 31 yard line with eight seconds left and a timeout in the bag. Instead of improving field position with a pass that could've been caught anywhere on the field with a timeout ready to be called, they ran a quarterback sneak to set the field goal attempt up in the middle of the field. A 48-yard field goal is no fucking gimme and the other Kris Brown proved just that. It's not been a good year for anyone named Chris Brown, regardless of spelling. Somebody get them an umbrella.

New England (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are nursing injuries in the secondary just as the Patriots start to rev up their offensive engines. The Saints are due for a loss with the way they've been playing in recent weeks. I'm surprised Vegas made the line this high. Fifty-eight percent of the public has already responded by backing the Patriots. They definitely could've gotten away with the Saints -1, given that the NFC is only 18-22 vs. the AFC this year.

Seattle (-3) over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks have shown they're pretty miserable, but thankfully the Rams are worse. They'll be starting their backup quarterback, and they still can't get pressure from their front seven. Since this game is a real snoozer to talk about, I'm going to point out that we're only a week away from the season premiere of "Jersey Shore." Here's a new, extended trailer!

Washington (+9.5) over PHILADELPHIA
I pointed it out last week, but I'll mention again that the Redskins are playing relatively competitive football. I'm also not convinced that the Eagles are ready to focus their offensive gameplan around a running attack, the proper way to beat the #1 pass defense in football. Besides, Andy Reid is too busy thinking about getting implants.

Kansas City (+13.5) over SAN DIEGO
Don't look now, but the Chiefs have won two in a row and three of five. The Chargers are getting a little too much love after a five-game winning streak of their own. I'll take the points.

Trap Game of the Week:

Arizona (+3) over TENNESSEE
It's really hard to pick against Vince Young after what you've seen from him in recent weeks. He's one slippery bastard to contain in the pocket. I'm not sure how you can bet on a game he's involved in because you're not sure what's going to happen. On the flip side, Arizona hasn't lost a road game yet this season. Given the woes the Titan defense still seems to be having against the pass and the stoutness of the Cardinals' run defense, I'll take the Cardinals.

Rest of the Picks:

Green Bay (-10.5) over DETROIT
When was the last time the Lions were above .500 on Thanksgiving? Surprisingly it was 2007 (before then it was 2000) when they came in at 6-4, played the Packers, and lost by 11. Sounds about right...

DALLAS (-13.5) over Oakland
I'm not sure I can explain it, but I have a funny feeling the Cowboys are going to bring some serious energy on Thanksgiving. Maybe it's because Wade Phillips finally learned Mexicanish.

DENVER (+6.5) over N.Y. Giants
Even in victory last week, I still can't get back on the Giants bandwagon. Without Antonio Pierce, I expect the Broncos to give them a heavy dose of the running game. The Giant defense has also shown it's not afraid to give up a late score, not something that helps a spread cover.

ATLANTA (-12) over Tampa Bay
I was all ready to jump on the Josh Freeman bandwagon and then he let me down last week. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...

Miami (-3) @ BUFFALO
The Bills are the second worst run defense in the league. The Dolphins are the fourth best rushing offense in the league. I like that math.

CINCINNATI (-14) over Cleveland
The Survivor pick of the Week says it all.

N.Y. JETS (-3) over Carolina
After the display Sanchez put up last week, you can bet your ass Rex Ryan will have him in check unless Sanchez wants one of those Oakland hot dogs shoved up his ass.

Jacksonville (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
I wasted five minutes trying to come up with something insightful to say about this game and failed miserably. The best I can offer is that the Niners haven't impressed me since Week 4.

Chicago (+10.5) over Minnesota
After seeing the stats NBC flashed regarding the disparity of Cutler's play between night and day games, I feel good enough to back the Bears this week. It is a day game. At least that's what I keep telling myself. Trap game #2??? Let's hope Devin Hester doesn't shown us his Sharapova again this week.

Pittsburgh (-2) over BALTIMORE
Until the Ravens prove to me that they can win a big game, I'll be taking the other side.

Season Record: 82-61-1 (57.3%)
Last week: 7-9
Survivor: 9-1
Locks: 16-16